Both when the CBOE future expired now, when the CME bitcoin future is coming settlement, there was clearly an important loss of the bitcoin price. Both futures has a good low volume and that i would guess that they may be covered with one single liquidity provider\/market maker. Forex trading maker is usually short the future and possibly long the spot. At expiry, they’ll profit if your prices are low and have a border after settlement in the event the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen a really bad settlement processes which might be simple to manipulate. For CBOE it is the auction price for Gemini – a tender which has a small volume more often than not.

CME’s model is way better, however not very good, VWAP about the four major exchanges a very good idea, but when that VWAP is calculated on one minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the degree on a real brief span of time is incredibly limited. Regardless if many large participants may have interests in any of these settlement processes they’d more than likely have the same position and advantages of exactly the same side of the market manipulation. The VWAP have to have been calculated over several hours instead). Concluding is that we likely will discover a large amount of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.

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