A sustained move under $53.61 will signal the existence of sellers showing a bull trap. This will likely trigger a labored break with potential targets weighing $52.40, $51.29 and $50.66. If $50.66 fails as support discover the selling to extend into the main retracement zone at $50.28 to $48.83.

A sustained move over $54.00 will indicate the existence of buyers. This can also indicate that Friday’s move was fueled by fake buying rather and just buy stops. The upside momentum won’t continue and testing $54.98 is really a fantasy for buyers from fuelled trade talks.

Lifting Iranian sanctions have a significant influence on the entire world oil market. Iran’s oil reserves are the fourth largest on the globe and they have a production capacity of about 4 million barrels per day, which makes them the second largest producer in OPEC. Iran’s oil reserves are the cause of approximately 10% from the world’s total proven petroleum reserves, in the rate from the 2006 production the reserves in Iran could last 98 years. Most likely Iran will add about One million barrels of oil each day on the market and in line with the world bank this will likely resulted in decline in the oil price by $10 per barrel the coming year.

As outlined by Data from OPEC, at the start of 2013 the largest oil deposits have been in Venezuela being 20% of worldwide oil reserves, Saudi Arabia 18%, Canada 13% and Iran 9%. Because of the characteristics of the reserves it isn’t always very easy to bring this oil for the surface in the limitation on extraction technologies along with the cost to extract.

As China’s increased interest in gas main instead of fossil fuel further reduces overall need for oil, the increase in supply from Iran along with the continuation Saudi Arabia putting more oil onto the market should see the price drop on the next Twelve months and a few analysts are predicting prices will belong to the $30’s.

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