Both once the CBOE future expired and after this, once the CME bitcoin future is arriving settlement, there was clearly an important loss of the bitcoin price. Both futures has a significant low volume and i also would estimate that they are covered with a single liquidity provider\/market maker. This market maker is most probably short the long run and possibly long the location. At expiry, they’ll profit if the prices are low this will let you border after settlement once the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen an incredibly bad settlement processes which might be all to easy to manipulate. For CBOE it’s the auction price for Gemini – a young having a tiny volume usually.

CME’s model is best, but nevertheless lower, VWAP for the four major exchanges may be beneficial, however, if that VWAP is calculated on just one minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the quantity on this type of brief period is quite limited. Even though many large participants may have interests in any of the settlement processes they’d probably have similar position and gains advantage from the same side of the market manipulation. The VWAP must have been calculated over several hours instead). The final outcome is always that we likely will discover a lots of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.

To read more about cme cboe explore this useful webpage.