Both once the CBOE future expired and from now on, when the CME bitcoin future is originating settlement, there is an important decline in the bitcoin price. Both futures has a significant low volume and I would estimate that they’re covered with a unitary liquidity provider\/market maker. The forex market maker is most probably short the long run and possibly long the area. At expiry, they’ll profit if your prices are low where you can border after settlement in the event the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen a really bad settlement processes which can be simple to manipulate. For CBOE it does not take auction price for Gemini – a tender using a tiny volume generally.

CME’s model is much better, but nevertheless not very good, VWAP about the four major exchanges is a good idea, but when that VWAP is calculated on one minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the degree on such a brief time period is very limited. Even when many large participants would have interests in any of these settlement processes they’d probably have a similar position and advantages of precisely the same side of the market manipulation. The VWAP have to have been calculated over several hours instead). The final outcome is we likely will discover a lot of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.

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