Both in the event the CBOE future expired and after this, when the CME bitcoin future is originating settlement, there were a substantial decline in the bitcoin price. Both futures has a serious low volume i would guess that they’re dominated by one liquidity provider\/market maker. This market maker is probably short the near future and possibly long the area. At expiry, they’ll profit if the price is low and have a border after settlement once the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen a very bad settlement processes which are simple to manipulate. For CBOE it’s the auction price for Gemini – a tender using a small volume more often than not.

CME’s model is best, but still lower, VWAP about the four major exchanges may be beneficial, in case that VWAP is calculated on one minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the degree on this kind of brief time period is extremely limited. Regardless if many large participants could have interests in a of these settlement processes they’d almost certainly have similar position and advantages from the same side with the market manipulation. The VWAP must have been calculated over a long time instead). The final outcome is we likely will discover a great deal of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.

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